November U.S. plug-in EV gross sales will climb once more, however how excessive?
November 2018 will mark the 38th month of consecutive year-over-year month-to-month gross sales positive factors for plug-in autos.
Every month InsideEVs tracks all plug-in EV gross sales/deliveries for the USA by automaker. The final 4 consecutive months are actually the highest 4 best-selling months of all time. As well as, March 2018 completes the record, that means all 5 prime months have occurred this yr. We now have little doubt November will make the record, however the place will it slot in? Is there an opportunity it might shoot to the highest?
September’s outcomes shall be powerful to beat because it’s up to now forward of the others. Maybe we’ll have to attend for December U.S. EV gross sales to crown a brand new champion? However, that doesn’t imply that November gross sales gained’t be top-notch!
How a few deep dive into our estimates and methodology?
High Months for U.S. EV Gross sales to Date (estimated):
- September 2018 – 45,589
- November 2018 – 42,239 and counting!
- August 2018 – 36,380
- October 2018 – 34,094
- July 2018 – 29,514
As of the tip of October 2018, an estimated 268,729 plug-in electrical autos had been bought within the U.S. this yr. We’re two-thirds of the way in which by the ultimate quarter earlier than the record-setting yr goes into the archives. There’s an opportunity we may even see over 350ok EV deliveries within the U.S. in 2018 by the point the yr involves an finish.
Test Out: Contributor Josh Bryant’s 2018 yearly gross sales predictions right here
In November 2017, an estimated 17,178 plug-ins had been bought in the USA. In each September and October 2018, we noticed effectively over 100-percent positive factors from final yr’s numbers. Will November be one other repeat of this pattern? Will we see deliveries go 34,500? There’s little doubt that this shall be achieved. Over 34,000 EVs had been bought within the U.S. in October, and November numbers are traditionally higher. We expect the month will simply see over 40,000 electrical autos delivered on our shores.
In September, we noticed a monumental effort by Tesla to get as many Mannequin three sedans as doable delivered for the reason that automaker was working diligently to point out a revenue. As well as, U.S. Mannequin S and Mannequin X gross sales had been strong. For the month of October, the Mannequin three push wasn’t as important, and being that it was the primary month of a brand new quarter, Mannequin S and Mannequin X gross sales had been decrease, as anticipated.
Quick ahead to November and it appears there’s a special story to inform. Remember the fact that Tesla can also be delivering Mannequin three autos to Canada. Additionally keep in mind that many Mannequin S and X autos (as many as 50 %) had been delivered outdoors the U.S. final month. Nonetheless, Tesla Mannequin three, S, and X gross sales are excellent primarily based on our analysis and knowledge.
In response to our estimates, Tesla bought a unbelievable 2,750 Mannequin S sedans and three,200 Mannequin X crossovers within the U.S. in November.
Our analysis and knowledge places November Mannequin three deliveries at 18,650 within the U.S.
Since GM has determined to discontinue month-to-month gross sales reporting, we offer you estimates every month after which reconcile (if wanted) on the finish of every quarter. We’re joyful to report that our analysis has confirmed profitable and our month-to-month numbers have been fairly strong
Primarily based on our estimates, the automaker has kicked it means up this November. It appears Chevrolet Volt gross sales have set an all-time file at three,930 delivered in November. Earlier to this report, the Volt’s finest month was December 2016, with three,691 bought.
Whereas Bolt EV gross sales didn’t soar as excessive — primarily based on our analysis and knowledge — Chevrolet delivered an estimated three,025 this November, which isn't too removed from its all-time excessive in December 2017 (three,227).
Nissan LEAF gross sales grew in August and escalated even additional in September. Nonetheless, October introduced a gentle downturn.
Transferring on to November, LEAF deliveries are down once more, at 1,128.
The Toyota Prius Prime has made optimistic strides in the previous couple of months, following a major drop in gross sales in June and July.
In response to Toyota, Prius Prime deliveries in November reached a formidable 2,312.
The Honda Readability Plug-in Hybrid hit a excessive level in Could (1,639). It additionally pulled fairly promising numbers for June, July, and August (about ~1,500 for 3 consecutive months). Nonetheless, September was the month that broke data for Honda’s new plug-in because it crossed the two,000-mark for the primary time. October continued that momentum, as our estimates pegged Readability Plug-In Hybrid gross sales a 1,935.
This November, Honda bought a complete of 1,903 Readability autos. Primarily based on our estimates, 1,857 of those had been of the plug-in hybrid selection.
Preserve your self tuned in and refreshing the pages throughout the coming days as we put the numbers to the dialogue.
Questions getting into November (with solutions in italics as they arrive in):
- Will Tesla Mannequin three U.S. deliveries rise or stay flat? (Up once more. Whereas not as excessive as the massive September push, we see Mannequin three gross sales up once more, at 18,650 within the U.S. this November.)
- How a lot was Tesla capable of ramp up U.S. Mannequin S and Mannequin X gross sales as a result of upcoming expiration of the U.S. federal EV tax credit score? (Tons! In response to our estimates, Tesla bought 2,750 Mannequin S sedans and three,200 Mannequin X crossover within the U.S. in November.)
- Did the Toyota Prius Prime lastly make a major supply surge, or is 2,000 the brand new magic quantity? (Sure. Toyota upped its stock and reported Prius Prime deliveries at a formidable 2,312 for November.)
- What do our estimates reveal about Chevrolet Volt and Chevrolet Bolt EV gross sales, which appeared to fully flip over the past two months? (GM wowed us this November. In response to our estimates, Chevrolet bought three,930 Volts and three,025 Bolt EVs.)
- Whereas not unimaginable, 2018 Nissan LEAF U.S. gross sales have been strong within the 1,200-1500 vary for eight straight months. Can the LEAF shut out 2018 with a number of robust months? (Nope. LEAF gross sales had been down in October and have dropped once more for November. Nissan delivered 1,128 LEAF autos final month.)
- Honda Readability Plug-in Hybrid gross sales have been spectacular all yr, however particularly over the past two months. Can November deliveries set a file for the Readability? (Our estimates don’t counsel a brand new file, however a strong quantity nonetheless. Honda reported 1,903 Readability deliveries in November. We consider 1,857 had been plug-in hybrids.)
- So far as we perceive, Jaguar bought its first 5 I-Tempo autos within the U.S. in October. Will November present exponential gross sales progress?
- Did GM cross the 200,000-mark in November? (In response to our estimates, it seems that’s the case, however we’ll watch for GM’s quarterly report back to confirm.)
Additionally of notice this November:
- Honda bought an estimated 9 Readability FCEVs.
- Toyota delivered 194 Mirai gas cell autos.
Final replace: December 5, 2018 @ 10:00 AM ET
*Remember the fact that we use the phrases gross sales and deliveries synonymously. To ensure that a automobile to depend as SOLD, it must be paid in full (or leased) and be within the possession of the patron.
***InsideEVs’ journalist Wade Malone offered in-depth, detailed, and closely researched gross sales estimations and associated evaluation.
(Earlier yr’s month-to-month outcomes might be discovered on our Historic Charts web page)
2018 Month-to-month Gross sales Chart
|2018 U.S. EV SALES||JAN||FEB||MAR||APR||MAY||JUN||JUL||AUG||SEP||OCT||NOV||DEC||TOTAL|
|Tesla Mannequin three*||1875||2485||3820||3750||6000||5902||14250||17800||22250||17750||18650||114,532|
|Toyota Prius Prime||1496||2050||2922||2626||2924||2237||1984||2071||2213||2001||2312||24,836|
|Tesla Mannequin S*||800||1125||3375||1250||1520||2750||1200||2625||3750||1350||2750||22,495|
|Tesla Mannequin X*||700||975||2825||1025||1450||2550||1325||2750||3975||1225||3200||22,000|
|Chevrolet Bolt EV*||1177||1424||1774||1275||1125||1083||1175||1225||1549||2075||3025||16,907|
|Honda Readability PHEV*||594||881||1061||1049||1639||1445||1440||1495||2028||1935||1857||15,424|
|Ford Fusion Energi||640||794||782||742||740||604||522||396||480||453||1131||7,284|
|Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid**||375||450||480||425||650||710||450||654||637||623||895||6,349|
|BMW i3 (BEV + REx)||382||623||992||503||424||580||464||418||461||424||490||5,761|
|BMWX5 xDrive 40e*||261||596||627||563||499||321||431||264||225||224||213||four,224|
|Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV||300||323||373||273||297||390||350||366||378||309||376||three,735|
|Kia Niro PHEV*||155||246||227||120||218||281||225||346||313||323||2,454|
|Audi A3 Sportback e-tron*||145||199||214||189||267||238||220||240||230||210||2,152|
|Volvo XC60 PHEV*||109||155||167||141||214||226||185||210||215||180||1,802|
|Porsche Panamera E-Hybrid*||1||2||49||336||275||168||195||200||210||170||1,606|
|Mini Countryman SE PHEV*||127||100||74||106||163||211||210||128||140||117||74||1,450|
|Hyundai IONIQ PHEV*||22||178||218||180||217||143||180||43||11||128||1,320|
|Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV*||99||106||93||90||126||133||115||125||120||100||1,107|
|Honda Readability BEV*||203||104||48||52||37||126||120||75||122||116||37||1,zero40|
|Kia Soul EV*||115||163||157||152||133||57||130||33||18||61||1,zero19|
|Porsche Cayenne S-E*||113||121||197||265||59||12||15||45||60||25||912|
|Kia Optima PHEV*||86||103||156||142||98||83||90||39||17||51||865|
|Mercedes GLE 550e*||44||70||181||93||83||75||85||90||42||28||35||826|
|Ford C-Max Energi||234||142||105||57||18||6||four||four||12||zero||zero||582|
|Ford Focus Electrical||70||73||137||83||88||50||46||7||four||zero||1||559|
|Hyundai Sonata PHEV*||52||54||78||38||67||62||60||20||15||5||451|
|Mercedes GLC 350e*||5||57||59||64||66||60||65||27||20||24||447|
|Volvo S90 T8 PHEV*||27||29||52||29||30||35||30||40||45||35||352|
|Hyundai IONIQ EV*||49||three||60||7||32||47||35||21||12||21||287|
|Cadillac CT6 PHEV*||6||24||17||42||30||18||26||23||11||12||13||222|
|2018 U.S. Gross sales Totals||12,zero49||16,845||26,373||19,556||24,310||25,zero19||29,514||36,380||44,589||34,094||42,239||310,968|
|2017 U.S. Gross sales Totals||11,004||12,375||18,542||13,367||16,596||17,zero46||15,540||16,514||21,242||14,315||17,178||26,107||199,826|
|2018 Worldwide Gross sales*||82,000||81,000||141,000||128,450||159,346||157,933||144,975||172,400||200,500||208,800||1,467,404|
Above – 2018 Month-to-month Gross sales Chart For The Main Plug-In Automakers – *Estimated Gross sales Numbers – Reconciled on Month-to-month or Quarterly Totals, ** Estimated (Primarily based on State/Rebate Knowledge and different reviews). BEV fashions are designated with the icon.