November U.S. plug-in EV gross sales will climb once more, however how excessive?
November 2018 will mark the 38th month of consecutive year-over-year month-to-month gross sales positive aspects for plug-in automobiles.
Every month InsideEVs tracks all plug-in EV gross sales/deliveries for the USA by automaker. The final 4 consecutive months are actually the highest 4 best-selling months of all time. As well as, March 2018 completes the record, that means all 5 high months have occurred this 12 months. Now we have little question November will make the record, however the place will it slot in? Is there an opportunity it may shoot to the highest?
September’s outcomes will probably be powerful to beat because it’s thus far forward of the others. Maybe we’ll have to attend for December U.S. EV gross sales to crown a brand new champion? However, that doesn’t imply that November gross sales received’t be top-notch!
How a couple of deep dive into our estimates and methodology?
High Months for U.S. EV Gross sales to Date (estimated):
- September 2018 – 45,589
- November 2018 – 44,148
- August 2018 – 36,380
- October 2018 – 34,094
- July 2018 – 29,514
As of the top of October 2018, an estimated 268,729 plug-in electrical automobiles had been offered within the U.S. this 12 months. We’re two-thirds of the way in which by way of the ultimate quarter earlier than the record-setting 12 months goes into the archives. There’s an opportunity we may even see over 350okay EV deliveries within the U.S. in 2018 by the point the 12 months involves an finish.
Test Out: Contributor Josh Bryant’s 2018 yearly gross sales predictions right here
In November 2017, an estimated 17,178 plug-ins had been offered in the USA. In each September and October 2018, we noticed nicely over 100-percent positive aspects from final 12 months’s numbers. Will November be one other repeat of this development? Will we see deliveries go 34,500? There’s little doubt that this will probably be achieved. Over 34,000 EVs had been offered within the U.S. in October, and November numbers are traditionally higher. We expect the month will simply see over 40,000 electrical automobiles delivered on our shores.
In September, we noticed a monumental effort by Tesla to get as many Mannequin three sedans as attainable delivered because the automaker was working diligently to point out a revenue. As well as, U.S. Mannequin S and Mannequin X gross sales had been strong. For the month of October, the Mannequin three push wasn’t as vital, and being that it was the primary month of a brand new quarter, Mannequin S and Mannequin X gross sales had been decrease, as anticipated.
Quick ahead to November and it appears there’s a special story to inform. Understand that Tesla can also be delivering Mannequin three automobiles to Canada. Additionally keep in mind that many Mannequin S and X automobiles (as many as 50 %) had been delivered outdoors the U.S. final month. Nonetheless, Tesla Mannequin three, S, and X gross sales are excellent primarily based on our analysis and knowledge.
In line with our estimates, Tesla offered a incredible 2,750 Mannequin S sedans and three,200 Mannequin X crossovers within the U.S. in November.
Our analysis and knowledge places November Mannequin three deliveries at 18,650 within the U.S.
Since GM has determined to discontinue month-to-month gross sales reporting, we offer you estimates every month after which reconcile (if wanted) on the finish of every quarter. We’re blissful to report that our analysis has confirmed profitable and our month-to-month numbers have been fairly strong
Primarily based on our estimates, the automaker has kicked it means up this November. It appears Chevrolet Volt gross sales have set an all-time report at three,930 delivered in November. Earlier to this report, the Volt’s greatest month was December 2016, with three,691 offered.
Whereas Bolt EV gross sales didn’t soar as excessive — primarily based on our analysis and knowledge — Chevrolet delivered an estimated three,zero25 this November, which isn't too removed from its all-time excessive in December 2017 (three,227).
Nissan LEAF gross sales grew in August and escalated even additional in September. Nevertheless, October introduced a light downturn.
Transferring on to November, LEAF deliveries are down once more, at 1,128.
The Toyota Prius Prime has made constructive strides in the previous few months, following a major drop in gross sales in June and July.
In line with Toyota, Prius Prime deliveries in November reached a formidable 2,312.
The Honda Readability Plug-in Hybrid hit a excessive level in Could (1,639). It additionally pulled fairly promising numbers for June, July, and August (about ~1,500 for 3 consecutive months). Nevertheless, September was the month that broke data for Honda’s new plug-in because it crossed the two,000-mark for the primary time. October continued that momentum, as our estimates pegged Readability Plug-In Hybrid gross sales a 1,935.
This November, Honda offered a complete of 1,903 Readability automobiles. Primarily based on our estimates, 1,857 of those had been of the plug-in hybrid selection.
Maintain your self tuned in and refreshing the pages throughout the coming days as we put the numbers to the dialogue.
Questions coming into November (with solutions in italics as they arrive in):
- Will Tesla Mannequin three U.S. deliveries rise or stay flat? (Up once more. Whereas not as excessive as the large September push, we see Mannequin three gross sales up once more, at 18,650 within the U.S. this November.)
- How a lot was Tesla capable of ramp up U.S. Mannequin S and Mannequin X gross sales as a result of upcoming expiration of the U.S. federal EV tax credit score? (Tons! In line with our estimates, Tesla offered 2,750 Mannequin S sedans and three,200 Mannequin X crossover within the U.S. in November.)
- Did the Toyota Prius Prime lastly make a major supply surge, or is 2,000 the brand new magic quantity? (Sure. Toyota upped its stock and reported Prius Prime deliveries at a formidable 2,312 for November.)
- What do our estimates reveal about Chevrolet Volt and Chevrolet Bolt EV gross sales, which appeared to utterly flip during the last two months? (GM wowed us this November. In line with our estimates, Chevrolet offered three,930 Volts and three,zero25 Bolt EVs.)
- Whereas not unbelievable, 2018 Nissan LEAF U.S. gross sales have been strong within the 1,200-1500 vary for eight straight months. Can the LEAF shut out 2018 with a couple of robust months? (Nope. LEAF gross sales had been down in October and have dropped once more for November. Nissan delivered 1,128 LEAF automobiles final month.)
- Honda Readability Plug-in Hybrid gross sales have been spectacular all 12 months, however particularly during the last two months. Can November deliveries set a report for the Readability? (Our estimates don’t recommend a brand new report, however a strong quantity nonetheless. Honda reported 1,903 Readability deliveries in November. We consider 1,857 had been plug-in hybrids.)
- So far as we perceive, Jaguar offered its first 5 I-Tempo automobiles within the U.S. in October. Will November present exponential gross sales development? (Sure! Jaguar offered 165 I-Tempo automobiles within the U.S. in November.)
- Did GM cross the 200,000-mark in November? (In line with our estimates, it seems that’s the case, however we’ll look forward to GM’s quarterly report back to confirm.)
Additionally of notice this November:
- Honda offered an estimated 9 Readability FCEVs.
- Toyota delivered 194 Mirai gas cell automobiles.
Final replace: December 5, 2018 @ 1:05 PM ET
*Understand that we use the phrases gross sales and deliveries synonymously. To ensure that a automobile to rely as SOLD, it needs to be paid in full (or leased) and be within the possession of the patron.
***InsideEVs’ journalist Wade Malone offered in-depth, detailed, and closely researched gross sales estimations and associated evaluation.
(Earlier 12 months’s month-to-month outcomes may be discovered on our Historic Charts web page)
2018 Month-to-month Gross sales Chart
|2018 U.S. EV SALES||JAN||FEB||MAR||APR||MAY||JUN||JUL||AUG||SEP||OCT||NOV||DEC||TOTAL|
|Tesla Mannequin three*||1875||2485||3820||3750||6000||5902||14250||17800||22250||17750||18650||114,532|
|Toyota Prius Prime||1496||2050||2922||2626||2924||2237||1984||2071||2213||2001||2312||24,836|
|Tesla Mannequin S*||800||1125||3375||1250||1520||2750||1200||2625||3750||1350||2750||22,495|
|Tesla Mannequin X*||700||975||2825||1025||1450||2550||1325||2750||3975||1225||3200||22,000|
|Chevrolet Bolt EV*||1177||1424||1774||1275||1125||1083||1175||1225||1549||2075||3025||16,907|
|Honda Readability PHEV*||594||881||1061||1049||1639||1445||1440||1495||2028||1935||1857||15,424|
|Ford Fusion Energi||640||794||782||742||740||604||522||396||480||453||1131||7,284|
|Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid**||375||450||480||425||650||710||450||654||637||623||895||6,349|
|BMW i3 (BEV + REx)||382||623||992||503||424||580||464||418||461||424||490||5,761|
|BMWX5 xDrive 40e*||261||596||627||563||499||321||431||264||225||224||213||four,224|
|Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV||300||323||373||273||297||390||350||366||378||309||376||three,735|
|Kia Niro PHEV*||155||246||227||120||218||281||225||346||313||323||619||three,zero73|
|Audi A3 Sportback e-tron*||145||199||214||189||267||238||220||240||230||210||180||2,332|
|Volvo XC60 PHEV*||109||155||167||141||214||226||185||210||215||180||225||2,zero27|
|Porsche Panamera E-Hybrid*||1||2||49||336||275||168||195||200||210||170||200||1,806|
|Hyundai IONIQ PHEV*||22||178||218||180||217||143||180||43||11||128||136||1,456|
|Mini Countryman SE PHEV*||127||100||74||106||163||211||210||128||140||117||74||1,450|
|Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV*||99||106||93||90||126||133||115||125||120||100||130||1,237|
|Kia Soul EV*||115||163||157||152||133||57||130||33||18||61||61||1,080|
|Honda Readability BEV*||203||104||48||52||37||126||120||75||122||116||37||1,zero40|
|Porsche Cayenne S-E*||113||121||197||265||59||12||15||45||60||25||35||947|
|Kia Optima PHEV*||86||103||156||142||98||83||90||39||17||51||79||944|
|Mercedes GLE 550e*||44||70||181||93||83||75||85||90||42||28||35||826|
|Ford C-Max Energi||234||142||105||57||18||6||four||four||12||zero||zero||582|
|Ford Focus Electrical||70||73||137||83||88||50||46||7||four||zero||1||559|
|Hyundai Sonata PHEV*||52||54||78||38||67||62||60||20||15||5||5||456|
|Mercedes GLC 350e*||5||57||59||64||66||60||65||27||20||24||447|
|Volvo S90 T8 PHEV*||27||29||52||29||30||35||30||40||45||35||40||392|
|Hyundai IONIQ EV*||49||three||60||7||32||47||35||21||12||21||34||321|
|Cadillac CT6 PHEV*||6||24||17||42||30||18||26||23||11||12||13||222|
|2018 U.S. Gross sales Totals||12,zero49||16,845||26,373||19,556||24,310||25,019||29,514||36,380||44,589||34,094||44,148||312,877|
|2017 U.S. Gross sales Totals||11,004||12,375||18,542||13,367||16,596||17,046||15,540||16,514||21,242||14,315||17,178||26,107||199,826|
|2018 Worldwide Gross sales*||82,000||81,000||141,000||128,450||159,346||157,933||144,975||172,400||200,500||208,800||1,467,404|
Above – 2018 Month-to-month Gross sales Chart For The Main Plug-In Automakers – *Estimated Gross sales Numbers – Reconciled on Month-to-month or Quarterly Totals, ** Estimated (Primarily based on State/Rebate Knowledge and different experiences). BEV fashions are designated with the icon.